Future Cities
2023 North America Industrial Big Box
Review & Outlook
April 4, 2023 60 Minute Read
![23BB_972x1296_00-HERO](https://mediaassets.cbre.com/-/media/project/cbre/shared-site/insights/reports/2023-report-media-folder/2023-north-america-industrial-big-box-media-folder/23bb_972x1296_00-hero.jpg)
Introduction from Leadership
Looking for a PDF of this content?
North America Overview
An industrial big-box facility is a traditional warehouse or distribution center of at least 200,000 sq. ft.
In 2022—despite widespread macroeconomic concerns—North American big-box industrial facilities saw record-low vacancy, unprecedented rent growth and significant new construction. Serving growing populations, modernizing space for automation, and increasing supply chain resilience largely drove occupier demand. The direct vacancy rate was 3.3% at year end, matching 2021’s record low, driving up first-year base rents by 23% year-over-year. 272.7 million sq. ft. of construction was completed. A record 455 million sq. ft. is under construction, with 25.3% pre-leased.
Experts Weigh In
Clarion Partners’ Nicole Welch and CBRE’s James Breeze, Paige Morgan, John Morris and Lynnelle Noll discuss key findings from the report, including occupier sentiment, capital markets trends, emerging markets, the 2023 outlook, and more.
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers were the most active occupiers for the first time, accounting for 41% of all lease transactions. While vacancy and rental rates hit record levels, transaction volumes declined from 2021. A total of 374.6 million sq. ft. was leased in 2022, 20% lower than the previous year but 5.5% above 2020.
CBRE expects lease transaction volume to further decline this year, as the post-peak pandemic leasing rush wanes and some tenants wait for more macroeconomic certainty. Lower leasing activity at a time of high development completions will result in some vacancy increases, but double-digit rent growth will remain. While a record level of product is under construction, highly constrained construction financing will reduce ground breakings by over 50% in 2023. As a result, H2 2024 and H1 2025 will see significant reduction in new construction deliveries, keeping vacancies low and sustaining double-digit rent growth.
This report provides an in-depth overview of supply-and-demand fundamentals, demographics, logistics drivers, labor and location incentives for North America’s top 25 core, gateway, and emerging markets. The interactive format allows readers to engage with the data and analysis in a way that best suits their needs and preferences.
Figure 1: North America Leasing Activity
Note: Includes new leases and renewals 200,000 sq. ft. and above in the markets tracked in this report.
Source: CBRE Research, 2022.
Figure 2: Share of North America 2022 Leasing Activity by Occupier Type
Note: Includes new leases and renewals 200,000 sq. ft. and above in the markets tracked in this report.
Source: CBRE Research, 2022.
Figure 3: North America Market Statistics
Note: Statistics only include markets tracked in this report.
Source: CBRE Research, 2022.
Figure 4: North America Under Construction vs. Preleased
Note: Statistics only include markets tracked in this report.
Source: CBRE Research, 2022.
Figure 5: North America Top 10 Rankings
Source: CBRE Research, 2022.
Explore Big Box Insights by Market
Industrial & Logistics Research
Contributors
Related Services
- Property TypeIndustrial & Logistics
We represent the largest industrial real estate platform in the world, offering an integrated suite of services for occupiers and investors.
Purchase, lease, and manage and sell your assets with proven real estate strategies for industrial investors, property owners, developers and landlords.
We help businesses drive sustainable value through the entire real estate lifecycle to meet clients’ objectives, mitigate risk and optimize performance.